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Evidence-based analysis with clear views, explicit assumptions, and the key variables that matter most.
Why Stock Valuations Don't Predict Crashes (And What Actually Does)
CAPE hit 41.4 in July against a 17.8 average since 1881, and only December 1999 was higher. But valuation is a slope-angle measurement — it sets how far the market falls, not whether anything is about to break. A framework for separating the odds of a crash from the depth of one.
The Trapped Central Bank: Why Debt Service Anchors Hard Assets
Desks have repriced Fed funds futures from cuts toward hikes, and gold has been hammered from $5,595 to $4,090 on the legacy playbook. But under structural fiscal dominance, central banks lack the balance-sheet clearance to hike without destabilising the sovereign debt model itself. The rates market is pricing a fantasy.
Is Euphoria Over? Reading the Mid-July Regime Shift
A $3.2 trillion rotation out of crowded semis, SpaceX breaking its $135 IPO floor, and TSMC lifting capex to $60–64B. Three headlines, one process: the market has shifted from unconstrained discovery to liquidity rationing. The money hasn't left — it has stopped deciding everyone deserves a share.
Why Does Alpha Disappear Exactly When Opportunities Appear to Be Increasing?
Dispersion widens, single names start telling their own stories, and the stock-picker's-market pitch writes itself — yet roughly 79% of large-cap active funds still lagged the S&P 500. Markets don't get harder because opportunities dry up. They get harder because more people see the same ones, and the table has changed.