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Evidence-based analysis with clear views, explicit assumptions, and the key variables that matter most.
Why Stock Valuations Don't Predict Crashes (And What Actually Does)
CAPE hit 41.4 in July against a 17.8 average since 1881, and only December 1999 was higher. But valuation is a slope-angle measurement — it sets how far the market falls, not whether anything is about to break. A framework for separating the odds of a crash from the depth of one.
The Trapped Central Bank: Why Debt Service Anchors Hard Assets
Desks have repriced Fed funds futures from cuts toward hikes, and gold has been hammered from $5,595 to $4,090 on the legacy playbook. But under structural fiscal dominance, central banks lack the balance-sheet clearance to hike without destabilising the sovereign debt model itself. The rates market is pricing a fantasy.
Gold Has Stopped Waiting for Real Rates
Gold is rising through the very condition that should restrain it: high real rates. With the Fed still restrictive, real yields elevated, and Treasury showing fresh sensitivity to long-end pressure, the market appears to be repricing gold from an opportunity-cost trade into a policy-confidence hedge.
Why Silver May Be Setting Up for Another Repricing
Silver's January spike above $120 was violent, but it also forced hidden supply back into the market. Recycling is at a 13-year high, refiners have hit bottlenecks, and yet silver is still projected to run a sixth consecutive annual deficit. That is what makes the next repricing risk interesting.